Newsletter: The US election results swept through Middle East and started to change regional dynamism
(11/04/2024–11/11/2024)
Edited by Issa Adeli (isadeli.bsky.social)
Last week, the US election shocked many in the region. Just within less than a week, many things have changed: Qatar suspended its mediator role in the Gaza ceasefire; Netanyahu fired his secretary of defence and appointed a new ambassador to the US; and Israel and Iran toned down their rhetoric.
Here are all the headlines about the US foreign policy and the Middle East in the last week:
10
November
Trump’s return signals US exit from northeast Syria
Donald Trump intends to withdraw US troops from northern Syria to prevent them from becoming “cannon fodder” in potential Turkish-Kurdish conflicts, according to revelations by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. during a Tucker Carlson interview. Kennedy, expected to play a key role in Trump’s administration, said that during a recent flight, Trump had sketched a map of the Middle East, highlighting 500 US troops positioned along the Syria-Turkey border at a vulnerable outpost that had recently faced attacks. He quoted Trump’s direct command: “Get them out!” (Read more at Medyanews)
10
November
US, Britain launch raids on Yemeni capital Sanaa, elsewhere
The facilities contained various weapons used to target military and civilian vessels navigating international waters throughout the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, according to information provided by the Pentagon (Read more at Arabnews).
09
November
After Hamas rejection of hostage deal, US asked Qatar to expel the group
Qatar then made the demand to Hamas leaders about 10 days ago. Three Hamas officials denied Qatar had told Hamas leaders they were no longer welcome in the country. The spokesperson for Qatar’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for confirmation or comment (Read more at Arabnews)
09
November
Donald Trump and Sudan: What to expect from the returning US president
Under Joe Biden, Washington did not engage with the crisis in Sudan at a high level. Under Trump, it will likely be a pawn in a regional deal. Not long after Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections was confirmed, Sudanese army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan announced that he was looking forward to “developing relations between our two countries during his presidency for the benefit of both countries”. Burhan’s ally-turned-enemy, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) chief better known as Hemeti, was not far behind, extending his congratulations through the paramilitary group’s media office (Read more at Middle East Eye).
09
November
Iran denies plot to kill Trump, calls for confidence-building with US
“Now … a new scenario is fabricated … as a killer does not exist in reality, scriptwriters are brought in to manufacture a third-rate comedy,” Araqchi said in a post on X. He was referring to the alleged plot which Washington said was ordered by Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards to assassinate Trump. “The American people have made their decision. And Iran respects their right to elect the President of their choice. The path forward is also a choice. It begins with respect,” Araqchi said (Read more at Iranpost).
08
November
Pentagon: Israel made progress on assistance into Gaza but more needs to be done
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Mr Austin wrote to Israeli officials in October demanding concrete measures to address the worsening situation in the Palestinian enclave. Failure to do so could impact US policy, the letter said (Read more at Straits Times).
08
November
Blinken holds calls in final Middle East diplomacy push
US officials have said they will make a final push to reach deals on the conflicts, although it is unclear how much leverage they have over Israel and other actors in the region now focused on the incoming administration of former President Donald Trump. The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, spoke to counterparts in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to end Israel’s conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon (Read more at Middle East Monitor).
08
November
Palestine President tells Trump he is ready to work together towards peace
The official Palestinian news agency, Wafa, cited a statement by Abbas’ office saying he spoke with Trump over the phone, congratulating him on his election victory earlier this week. Trump told Abbas that he was committed to end the ongoing conflict in Gaza and to work with him and other relevant stakeholders “to promote peace in the region (Read more at Middle East Monitor)
08
November
Biden condemns ‘despicable’ attacks on Israeli soccer fans in Amsterdam
He said it echoes dark moments in history when Jews were persecuted. The president said he has been in touch with Israeli and Dutch officials and that he appreciates “Dutch authorities’ commitment to holding the perpetrators accountable (Read more at The Hill).
08
November
DOJ charges an alleged Iranian murder-for-hire plot against Trump
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stressed the need to stop the fighting in Sudan and the need to support efforts to form a civilian government during a Friday call with United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the State Department said in a statement (Read more at CNBC).
08
November
Netanyahu appoints new Israeli ambassador to US
Netanyahu tapped U.S.-born Yechiel Leiter to succeed Michael Herzog as its next ambassador in Washington. The move follows President-elect Trump’s decisive victory in the U.S. presidential election earlier this week. He got his Ph.D. in political philosophy from the University of Haifa. Leiter’s son, Maj. Moshe Yedidya Leiter, was killed last year during the Israel-Hamas war (Read more at The Hill).
08
November
Eying reset in ties, Erdogan invites Trump to visit Turkey
Outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden did not visit Turkey during his term and Erdogan’s planned White House visit early this year fell through with little explanation, underlining the cool relations. Trump’s election victory this week was generally met with cheer in NATO-member Turkey, with markets rallying and some officials cautiously optimistic about prospects for new U.S. economic policies (Read more at Reuters).
08
November
Erdoğan hopes Trump will stop war in Middle East, Ukraine
He also suggested that the war in Ukraine could be resolved quickly if the U.S. administration adopts a solution-focused approach. “Mr. Trump cutting off the arms support provided to Israel could be a good start in order to stop the Israeli aggression in Palestinian and Lebanese lands,” he said. (Read more at Duvar).
07
November
Former Trump Middle East Envoy: The President-elect Will End the Chaos
In the hours since former President Donald Trump won reelection, my phone has been ringing off the hook. Many calls came from counterparts across the Middle East whom I worked with as a Middle East envoy in the first Trump White House. Some were colleagues in Israel and the Gulf Arab states who helped negotiate the Abraham Accords peace deal. Others I have worked with since Trump left office. They all, without exception, are looking forward to Trump’s inauguration (Read more at USNews).
07
November
Most Gulf Markets Gain on Trump’s Presidential Win
Trump’s proposed import tariffs might strengthen the U.S. dollar through reduced spending on foreign goods, benefiting Gulf Cooperation Countries’ (GCC) currencies. A stronger dollar from Trump’s protectionist policies would also increase foreign investment in the GCC region. In addition, according to Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer, Century Financial, Trump is more likely to resolve regional conflict faster as compared to his counterpart, which is expected to promote further stability in the region (Read more at Investing.com).
07
November
Israel Signs $5.2 Billion Deal to Acquire 25 F-15 Fighter Jets From Boeing
The deal was widely expected and has been in the process of finalization throughout the year as Israel has been fighting a multi-front war against Iran-backed proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen. Israel used F-15s in its long-range strike on Yemen in July. The US has also deployed F-15s to the region amid Israel-Iran tensions, illustrating how the Boeing-made plane, which first flew in the 1970s, is increasingly relevant today (Read more at Breaking Defense).
07
November
Most Gulf Central Banks Follow Fed Lead and Cut Key Interest Rates
The Gulf’s oil and gas exporters generally follow the Fed’s lead on rate moves as most regional currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar; only the Kuwaiti dinar is pegged to a basket of currencies, which includes the dollar (REad more at USNews).
07
November
Hezbollah calls for US action, not words, as Trump reclaims White House
Hezbollah welcomes any effort to stop the war in Lebanon but does not pin its hopes for a ceasefire on a particular U.S. administration, Hezbollah lawmaker Ibrahim al-Moussawi said on Thursday when asked about Donald Trump’s election victory (Read more at MSN).
07
November
Turkey hopes for lower US tariffs under Trump, lira rallies
Lira and Turkish assets rally on Trump’s victory. Investors see potential benefits for Turkey’s economic program. Turkey’s aggressive rate hikes cool inflation, boost reserves (Read more at Reuters).
07
November
Iran’s Pezeshkian says Tehran indifferent to US election result
“To us it does not matter at all who has won the American election, because our country and system relies on its inner strength and a great and honorable nation,” Pezeshkian said late on Wednesday, quoted by the state news agency IRNA (Read more at Arabnews).
07
November
Egypt sees in Trump a close ally it can count on
Abdel Fattah El Sisi told the US president-elect he looks forward to working together. In 2018, Mr Trump praised Egyptian leader El Sisi for doing “a fantastic job” and said the US was “very much behind” him. Egypt’s pro-government media speaks of Mr Trump as a strong leader who treats the nation with respect and values Mr El Sisi’s leadership (Read more at The National).
06
November
Most Gulf markets gain ahead of US election
Most stock markets in the Gulf rose on Tuesday as markets waited for early indications of the outcome of a knife-edge U.S. election. Dubai’s main share index <.TASI> rose 0.2%. The Qatari index <.QSI> finished 0.2% higher. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index <.TASI> edged 0.2% lower (Read more at ZAWYA).
06
November
Pentagon says it will work closely with Israel’s next defense minister
The Pentagon said on Tuesday that Yoav Gallant, whom Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired as defense minister on Tuesday, has been a “trusted partner,” and said it would continue to work closely with Israel’s next defense minister (Read more at AOL).
06
November
Israeli government celebrates Trump’s election triumph
Two-thirds of Israelis think Trump is better for Israel than Harris. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters celebrated Donald Trump’s election as president, hailing what a leader of the Israeli settler movement called an ally who would support them “unconditionally” (Read more at Reuters).
06
November
Grossi says he may head to Iran soon as Trump return looms
U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said on Wednesday he might head to Iran in the coming days to discuss its disputed atomic programme and that he expected to work cooperatively with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Grossi had previously said he hoped to go to Tehran ahead of the Nov. 5 U.S. vote as he seeks to resolve several long-standing issues that have dogged relations between Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency and Western powers (Read more at Reuters).
06
November
Palestinians dismayed by Trump’s win, their leaders urge peace
Palestinians, locked in war with Israel for more than a year, expressed fear at Donald Trump’s return to the White House, while the leaders of the Hamas group and the Palestinian Authority urged him to act for peace (Read more at Middle East Monitor).
06
November
Trump could harden Iran oil stance but struggle to stem flow to China, analysts say
Cracking down on OPEC-member Iran would support global oil prices, but the effect could also be offset by other Trump policies, from measures to expand domestic drilling, the imposition of tariffs on China that could depress economic activity, or an easing of relations with Russia that could unfetter its sanctioned crude shipments (Read more at MSN).
05
November
France’s Barrot to head to Israel in post-US election diplomatic push
France’s foreign minister will travel to Israel and the Palestinian territories on Wednesday seeking to press Israel to engage diplomatically to end the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon after the U.S. presidential election is over. “The United States plays an essential role in ending the Israeli-Arab conflict,” Jean-Noel Barrot said on France 2 television when asked whether a win for former President Donald Trump could boost Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Read more at AOL).
05
November
How will American-Israelis vote
The political breakdown among Jewish respondents in Israel revealed that 90% of right-wing voters and 52% of centrists believe Trump would be more beneficial for Israel, while the left favors Harris over Trump, 42% versus 29% (Read more at Jewish News Syndicate).
05
November
Blinken: Hamas rejects Egyptian ceasefire proposal
Cairo’s plan would have seen four Israeli hostages and 100 Palestinian terrorists released over a 10-day period after an initial 48-hour pause in fighting. Another proposal from Doha last week reportedly involved the release of 11 hostages in exchange for a one-month ceasefire, with priority given to living female captives. During talks in Doha at the end of last month, CIA Director Bill Burns reportedly proposed a 28-day ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for Hamas releasing eight hostages and Israel freeing dozens of Palestinian prisoners (Read more at Jewish News Syndicate).
04
November
US, Saudi Discussing Security Agreement Without Israel Component
The United States and Saudi Arabia are discussing a potential security agreement that wouldn’t involve a broader deal with Israel. The agreement under discussion is not a full defense treaty (Read more at USNews).
04
November
US soldier, 23, injured on Gaza pier in May dies
Taskin Torlak, 37, Sgt. Quandarius Davon Stanley, 23, was one of three US service members hurt on May 23 while working on the temporary floating pier that Biden had announced with great fanfare during his State of the Union address in March. The other two service members suffered minor injuries and returned to work after the incident, which the Pentagon has said was not combat related (Read more at NewYork Post).
04
Novemberr
Blinken urges Israel to increase aid to Gaza
In a phone call with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Blinken “reviewed actions Israel has taken to date and urged further actions to substantially increase and sustain humanitarian aid — including food, medicine and other essential supplies — to civilians across all of Gaza.” Asked what consequences Israel might face if it does not meet the 30-day requirements, Miller declined to speculate, saying: “I do not know what the factual situation that we will face in that period will be.” (Read more at Anadolu Ajansı)
Good Analysis:
09
November
Muslims supported Trump, Jews backed Harris
While Muslims are familiar with Trump’s harsh rhetoric, they also recognize one unpredictable factor: perhaps, in a sudden move, Trump might end the war. This partial belief in Trump’s potential actions has led some Muslims to lean more toward his side. A think tank study in the U.S. found that 75%-80% of Muslims voted for Trump, while 75%-80% of Jewish voters supported the Democrats. In a sense, the Democratic Party, AIPAC and Jews lost (Read more at Daily Sabah).
08
November
Erdogan’s ‘friend’ Trump played role in strained Turkey-U.S. ties
President Tayyip Erdogan called Donald Trump a “friend” in welcoming his return to the White House. Here are some of the rifts between Washington and Ankara: defence, sanctions, NATO, Syria, the pastor and the lira crash, Turkey-Russia ties (Read more at Swissinfo).
06
November
What Ties Do Trump And His Allies Have With Oil-Wealthy Gulf States
Since leaving office in 2021, former President Donald Trump and several of his close allies have maintained a prominent presence in the oil-rich Gulf states. One of the most significant developments in Trump’s ongoing relationship with Gulf leaders came in September, when he hosted Qatar’s ruling emir and the president of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) at his Mar-a-Lago estate. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and a key advisor during his time in office, has remained heavily involved in U.S.-Saudi relations. The Trump Organization has continued to explore new business opportunities in the Gulf region. Several other prominent figures from the Trump administration have maintained close business ties with Gulf nations (Read more at NewsX).
05
November
Where Harris and Trump Stand on Israel, Gaza
In an effort to engage with “leaders of the Arab-American community,” Harris headed to Michigan, a key swing state that is home to more than 200,000 Arab American voters. There, she pledged to do “everything in her power to end the war”. While acknowledging the “suffering in Gaza”, she reiterated, once again, that she must “ensure Israel is secure”. Trump has consistently prioritized ‘security’ concerns over humanitarian considerations and repeatedly affirmed that Israel should seek a swift victory. Moreover, Trump has frequently voiced skepticism about the two-state solution, suggesting that achieving peace might be difficult under this framework (Read more at Palestine Chronicle).
05
November
How will American-Israelis vote
The political breakdown among Jewish respondents in Israel revealed that 90% of right-wing voters and 52% of centrists believe Trump would be more beneficial for Israel, while the left favors Harris over Trump, 42% versus 29% (Read more at Jewish News Syndicate).
This is the only newsletter that is solely dedicated to the US foreign policy in the Middle East. To receive the newsletter in your inbox once a week, register here: https://isadeli.substack.com
Edited by Issa Adeli (isadeli.bsky.social)
